Abstract

iii

Executive Summary

v

Acknowledgments

xiii

1

Introduction

1

1.1

Purpose

2

2

Overview of North Slope Fields and Production

2

2.1

ANWR Update

2

2.2

Future Leasing Rounds

2

2.3

Prudhoe Bay Field

2

2.3.1

Development Plans

3

2.3.2

Production Forecasts and Recoverable Oil

3

2.3.3

Prudhoe Bay Investments

4

2.3.4

Operating Costs

4

2.3.5

Transportation Costs

5

2.3.6

Lost Oil Recovery Due to Major Gas Sales

5

2.3.7

Gas Production from Prudhoe Bay

6

3

Current Status of Commercialization Efforts

6

4

Brief Review of LNG Status

7

5

Status of GTL Technologies

8

5.1

Advances in GTL Technology

8

5.2

Pipeline Transport of the GTL Product

9

5.3

Value of the GTL Product

9

5.4

Capitol Costs

10

5.4.1

Capitol Costs-Alaska North Slope

10

6

Economic Evaluations

12

6.1

Economic Input Variables

12

6.1.1

Oil Prices

13

6.1.2

Inflation

13

6.1.3

Discount Rate

14

6.1.4

Taxes

14

6.2

Method of Economic Evaluations

14

6.2.1

Relationship between Prudhoe Bay and Gas Project

16

6.3

Results of Economic Evaluations

17

6.3.1

Scenarios Evaluation

17

6.3.2

TAPS Tariff Discussion

18

6.3.3

Results

19

6.3.4

Discussion of Results

20

6.3.5

Sensitivity Analyses

23

6.3.6

Monte Carlo Analysis

24

7

Summary

27

8

Appendix

29

9

References

35