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Portfolio Selections for Fossil Demonstration Plant Programs.
Report No.
1-703 - January 1977

English, Morley J.
Smith, Jeffrey L.
Grant-Smith, Sharon G.

Econergy, Inc.

Report, Pages 1 - 81, 3.16 MB
Appendices, A-I, 4.86 MB

Table of Contents

List of Figures  viii
List of Tables ix
1. Methodology for Selection of Fossil Energy Processes 1
  1.1 Basic Portfolio Theory 2
1.2 The Econergy Portfolio Model   6
  1.2.1 Revenues and Costs 6
1.2.2  Risk Measures 9
1.2.3 The Unnormalized Benefit/Risk Map  12
1.2.4 The Normalized Benefit/Risk Map 12
1.2.5 Risk Attitude and Decision-making 18
1.2.6 Program Decision Making 21
 2. Data Requirements 24
  2.1 Process Economic Data  
2.2 Plant Capacity and Revenue Calculation 25
2.3  Economic Assumptions 26
2.4 Process Risk Data   27
3. Major Facility Project Management Program Results 30
  3.1  Introduction 30
3.2 Portfolios of Coal Conversion Processes 32
  3.2.1 Program Structure 32
3.2.2 Baseline Portfolios 33
3.2.3 Budget Constraints 36
3.3  Program Results for Twenty-One Coal Conversion Processes 37
  3.3.1  Baseline Portfolio Results  37
3.3.2   Baseline Processes 42
3.3.3  Analysis of Program Results 46
3.3.4  Baseline Budgets 53
3.4 Sensitivity of Program Results 57
  3.4.1 Sensitivity to Process Economics and Risk 57
3.4.2  Sensitivity to Product Market Price 61
3.4.3 Portfolio Risk and Diversification 64
4. Summary of Results 67
  4.1 Portfolio Evaluation Criteria 67
4.2  Portfolio Results  68
4.3 Sensitivity of Results 73
4.4 Budget Analysis of Results 76
4.5 Recommended Processes 79
Bibliography 81
Appendices 82
A

List of Interviews

 

B

Input Data Requirements for Portfolio Model

 

C

Data for Twenty-one Coal Conversion Processes

 

D

Model Calculations

 

E

Ten Baseline Portfolio Results

 

F

Individual Process Results

 

G

Sensitivity Results for Ten Baseline Portfolios

 

H

APL Program Listings and Data

 

I

Fortran Program Listings