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Recommendations For A Synthetic Fuels Commercialization Program:
Volume II, Cost/Benefit Analysis of Alternate Production Levels

Synfuels Interagency Task Force

Table of Contents (658kb)

Chapter I

 Introduction (71.1kb)

1
 

Chapter II

 Projected Long-Range Energy Outlook (1975-2000) (0.99MB) 3
 
A Introduction 3
B Perspective 3
C Nominal Case 5
 

1

 Nominal Case Assumptions 5

2

 Nominal Case Projections 9
D Sensitivity Analysis 18
 

1

 Introduction 18

2

 Import Prices 19

3

 Domestic Oil and Gas Availability 22

4

 Synthetic Fuels Cost 22

5

 Demand 25

6

 Synthetic Fuels Delay 28
E Nuclear Availability 28
F Other Energy Sources 30
 

1

 Solar 32

2

 Nuclear Fusion 32

3

 Breeder Reactor 32

4

 Accelerated Coal Development 33

5

 Nuclear Fusion 34
 
Chapter III Alternatives for Coping with Future Domestic Energy Shortages (171kb) 35
 
A Free-Market Solutions 35
 

1

 Unlimited Imports 35

2

 Restricted Imports 36
B   Government Intervention Solutions 37
 
Chapter IV Implications on Synthetic Fuels Program on International Energy Objectives (127kb) 41
A Reduction of Demand for World-Traded Oil 41
B Technology Exchange 43
C Mobilization of IEA Resources 43
D Symbolic Value of an International Consortium 43
 
Chapter V Policy Decision Analysis - Objective Criteria to Evaluate Synthetic Fuels Commercialization Program (273kb) 45
A Foreword 45
B Introduction 46
C Approach 46
D Preferences 47
 

1

 Economic Net Benefits 47

2

 Embargo Protection 49

3

 Environmental and Socio-Economic Net Benefits 49

4

 Other Net Benefits 50

5

 Time Preference 51

6

 Risk Preference 51
 
Chapter VI Analysis of Alternate Scenarios for Synthetic Fuels Commercialization (838kb) 53
A Alternatives 53
B Information program 53
 

1

 Structure 53

2

 Uncertainty 58

3

 Results 62

4

 Sensitivity Analysis 69
 
Appendix A Description of the Stanford Research Institute Energy Model (950kb) A1
Appendix B Potential Coal Supply, Transportation, and Capital Goods Constraints (210kb) B1
Appendix C The Impact on the Consumer of the Costs and Benefits of the Synthetic Fuels Commercialization Program (306kb) C1
Appendix D Socio-Economic Impact of Synthetic Fuels Commercialization (1.02MB) D1
Appendix E Environmental Costs (894kb) E1
Appendix F Substitutability and Complementarity of Stockpiling and Synthetic Fuels Program (249kb) F1
Appendix G The Application of Net Energy Analysis to Synthetic Fuels (741kb) G1
Appendix H Input Data and Resulting Energy Forecasts from the Stanford Research Institute (3.39MB) H1
Appendix I Data and Model Used for the Decision Analysis (860kb) I1
Appendix J Inflationary Impact Evaluation (1.46MB) J1