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Return to DOE Reports Table of Contents - B
A Framework for Evaluating
Synthetic Fuels Commercialization Proposals.
Boyd, Dean W. Stanford Research Institute Table of Contents
Part 1,
Pages i - 77, 2.65 MB
Table of Contents
Abstract ii Preface and Acknowledgements iii Executive Summary ix-xx Background ix Focus of the Study x The Framework xi Summary of the Base Case Results xvii Summary of the Sensitivity Analysis xviii Summary Insights xviii 1. Introduction 1-3 1.1 Goal of the Study 1 1.2 Outline of the Report 2 2. Overview of Commercialization and its Relationship to R&D 4-11 3. Decision Analysis Model of Commercialization 12-17 3.1 Commercialization – Decision Tree 14 4. Deterministic Model of Coal Gasification 18-20 4.1.0 Local Model 20-22 4.1.1 Plant Model 22 Learning 24 A Simple Learning Model 24 A Learning Curve 26 Uncertainty 29 Summary of Current Status of Learning Model 34 Plant Outcomes 34 Base Case Results 34 4.1.2 Financial Model 37-86 Cost of Service pricing 38 Operating and Maintenance costs 38 Capital-Related Costs and the rate base 39 By-Product credits and other costs 43 Base case 43 Sensitivity Analysis 48 The return of Equity for the Utility 49 Investment tax credit 56 Inflation 63 Summary of the Base Case Results 85 Financial Model Outcomes 87 4.1.3 Local Socioeconomic Model 87-114 Characteristics and Structure of the Socioeconomic Model 89 Detailed Interactions 93 Population Submodel 95 Local Economy Submodel 95 Housing Submodel 95 Social Services Submodel 96 Local Government Revenue Submodel 97 Local Socioeconomic Model Results 97 Sensitivity Analysis 100 Detailed Model Runs 106 Summary of Local Socioeconomic Results 111 Socioeconomic Outcomes 111 4.1.4 Coal Mine Model 115 Mine Outcomes 115 4.1.5 Water Supply Model 115 Water Supply Outcomes 116 4.1.6 Government Cost Model 116-123 Subsidies 116 Construction Grants 116 Administrative 117 Transfer Payments 117 Lost taxes and Defaults 119 Default 121 Results of the Base Case 124 4.2.0 Long Run Effects 124-125 4.2.1 Energy System Model Capabilities 126-192 Economic Effects 126 Static (Single Year) Economic Surplus 133 Dynamic Approximation to Economic Surplus 141 Base Case Results – Economic Effects 146 Cost of First Lurgi Plant (Short Run Economic Effects) 148 Sensitivity Analysis 152 Long Run Benefits 156 Energy Model Assumptions and Results 150 Implications for High Btu Gas 167 Calculation of Long Run Benefits 169 Consumer’s Surplus 170 Producer’s Surplus 178 Long Run Environmental Impact 181 Base Case Results – Long Run Environmental Impacts 185 Socioeconomic Impacts 193 4.3.0 Social Value Model 193-205 Outcomes 193 Material Well-being 195 Equitable Resource Distribution 195 Wise Use of Natural Resources 195 Socioeconomic Impacts 196 Promote Energy Independence 196 Cost to Government 196 Preferences Tradeoffs 196 Preference Tradeoff Values 200 Material Well-being 200 Air Pollution 201 Water Pollution 202 Water Usage 202 Land Disruption 202 Socioeconomic Impacts 202 Cost to Government 204 Time Preferences 204 4.4.0 Summary Discussion of the Base Case 204 4.4.1 Major Assumptions 205 4.4.2 Base Case Outcome Summary 205-207 4.4.3 Base Case Outcome Evaluation 207-214 5. Summary of information Required for Evaluation of Coal Gasification Commercialization Proposals 215 5.1 Basis for Evaluation 215 5.2 Information Required from Bidders 216-218 Appendix A. Equations for Socioeconomic Model A-1, 44 B. SRI National Energy Model B-1, 57 C. Regulation of Natural Gas C-1, 76 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||